Apophenic Labs
How strategy, technology and organisations actually work together
Original research and analysis from three practitioners who've spent their careers at the intersection of enterprise strategy and emerging technology — examining what's changing, what isn't, and what most people are getting wrong.
All Research
AI & Automation
AI Won't Fix Your Strategy Problem — But It Can Show You Where It's Breaking
Enterprise AI adoption creates new organisational boundaries faster than companies can perceive them. We examine why deploying AI without structural visibility accelerates failure modes rather than resolving them.
Strategy The $47 Million Orphan: Anatomy of Disconnected Strategic Spend
A detailed case analysis of how initiatives labelled 'strategic' become untethered from the outcomes they claim to serve — and why every standard reporting mechanism missed it.
Methodology Signal Archaeology: Tracing Information Decay Across Organisational Layers
How to follow a single signal — a customer complaint, a risk flag, a market insight — through an organisation and measure exactly where and how it degrades into uselessness.
AI & Automation Pipelines, Not Agents: A Case for Deterministic AI in Enterprise Systems
The prevailing assumption is that autonomous AI agents are the future of enterprise automation. We argue that auditable, deterministic pipelines with human validation produce better outcomes — and explain why the distinction matters.
Innovation The Automation Ceiling: Why Most Enterprise AI Deployments Plateau at 30% Value Capture
We analysed AI deployment outcomes across 14 enterprises and found a consistent pattern: initial gains stall at roughly a third of projected value. The bottleneck isn't technical — it's organisational.
Strategy Strategy Is Not a Plan: Managing a Portfolio of Bets Under Uncertainty
The dominant mental model treats strategy as a plan to be executed faithfully. We propose an alternative that changes what you measure, what you track, and what you do when things aren't working.
Methodology Why Your OKRs Are Lying to You: The Measurement Problem in Strategic Execution
OKRs were designed to create alignment between strategy and execution. In practice, they often do the opposite — creating an illusion of alignment that masks deeper disconnection. We examine how this happens and what to do about it.
AI & Automation The Enterprise AI Gap: Why Proof of Concept Success Doesn't Predict Production Value
We examined 23 enterprise AI initiatives from proof of concept to production deployment. The correlation between PoC success metrics and production value delivery was effectively zero. Here's what actually predicts whether an AI initiative will deliver.
Strategy The Invisible Reorg: How Every Strategic Shift Restructures Your Organisation Without Anyone Noticing
Organisations announce restructures with fanfare. But the most consequential reorganisations happen silently — when strategic shifts create new dependencies, new boundaries, and new power dynamics that the formal structure doesn't reflect.
AI & Automation The Feedback Loop Deficit: Why Most AI Systems Get Worse After Deployment
AI systems are trained on historical data and deployed into a changing world. Without feedback loops that connect production performance to retraining decisions, models degrade silently. We found that 73% of enterprise AI systems had no systematic mechanism for learning from their own production errors.
Innovation How AI Is Quietly Restructuring Your Organisation Without Anyone Noticing
Every AI deployment changes the organisational structure — not on the org chart, but in the actual flow of information, decisions, and power. We mapped these invisible restructurings across eight enterprises and found that none had been anticipated, planned for, or even noticed.
AI & Automation Build vs. Buy Is the Wrong Question for Enterprise AI
The build-vs-buy debate frames AI as a technology procurement decision. The actual decision is about organisational capability: what do you need to understand deeply enough to control, and what can you safely treat as a commodity?
Methodology The Myth of the Single Source of Truth
Every data strategy promises a 'single source of truth.' We've never seen one that works as advertised. The concept fails not because of technology limitations but because organisations don't have single truths — they have multiple legitimate perspectives that resist unification.
Innovation Why AI Transformations Stall: The Organisational Immune Response
Organisations have immune systems — deeply embedded structural and cultural mechanisms that detect and neutralise foreign bodies. AI deployments trigger this immune response more reliably than almost any other change initiative. Understanding the mechanism is the first step to surviving it.
Strategy The Second-Order Effects of Enterprise AI: What Nobody Is Modelling
Every AI business case models the direct effects — cost reduction, speed improvement, accuracy gains. Almost none model the second-order effects: how AI changes team dynamics, shifts power structures, alters information flow, and reshapes organisational boundaries.
Methodology Data Literacy Is an Organisational Problem, Not a Training One
Organisations spend millions on data literacy training programs. Completion rates are high. Behavioural change is negligible. The issue isn't that people can't learn to use data — it's that the organisation isn't structured to reward them for doing so.
AI & Automation The Governance Gap: Why AI Ethics Frameworks Don't Survive Contact with Production
Every enterprise we studied had an AI ethics framework. None had successfully translated it into production-level decision-making. The gap isn't cynicism — it's structural. Ethics frameworks and production systems operate on different planes.
Methodology Measuring What Matters vs. What's Measurable: The Metric Substitution Problem
Organisations consistently substitute the metrics they can measure for the outcomes they actually care about. We identified this pattern across every enterprise we studied — and traced how it systematically distorts strategic execution.
AI & Automation The Platform Fallacy: Why Building a Data Platform Won't Make You Data-Driven
We studied nine organisations that invested $5M+ in data platform builds. Two became meaningfully more data-driven. The difference wasn't the platform — it was whether the organisation changed how it made decisions.
Innovation Generative AI and the Disappearing Middle Manager: The Organisational Layer Nobody's Preparing For
The consensus is that generative AI will automate routine tasks. We argue the bigger disruption is structural: AI is compressing the middle management layer that serves as the primary translation mechanism between strategy and execution.
AI & Automation The Data Gravity Problem: How Data Mass Creates Organisational Inertia
As organisations accumulate data, it develops gravitational pull — attracting applications, processes, and decisions toward it. We examined how data gravity constrains AI strategy and creates structural inertia that no technology migration can overcome alone.
Methodology When Dashboards Lie: The Visualisation Problem in Strategic Decision-Making
Dashboards don't present reality — they present a curated, aggregated, delayed version of reality. We traced how three critical business signals were invisible to executive dashboards despite being visible to the people closest to the work.
AI & Automation The AI Readiness Illusion: Why Maturity Assessments Measure the Wrong Things
Every major consultancy offers an 'AI Readiness Assessment.' We compared the dimensions they measure against the factors that actually predicted AI deployment success across 18 organisations. The overlap was less than 30%.
Strategy Strategic Debt: The Hidden Cost of Deferred Organisational Decisions
Technical debt has a well-understood cost structure. Strategic debt — the accumulated weight of deferred organisational decisions — is more expensive and far less visible. We found $23M in annual cost attributable to decisions that were never made.
AI & Automation The Model Is Not the Product: Why ML Performance Metrics Miss the Point
Enterprise AI teams obsess over model accuracy, F1 scores, and inference latency. But the model is typically 15-20% of the value chain. The other 80% — integration, workflow design, feedback loops, trust — is where deployments succeed or fail.
Methodology Data as Organisational Memory: What Your Data Architecture Is Actually Telling You
An organisation's data architecture isn't just a technical artefact — it's a fossil record of how the organisation has made decisions, resolved conflicts, and evolved over time. Learning to read it diagnostically reveals structural patterns no org chart can show.
Strategy The Chief AI Officer Trap: Why a New Title Won't Solve a Structural Problem
The rush to appoint Chief AI Officers assumes that AI adoption is a leadership problem. In practice, it's a boundary problem — and adding a new node to the org chart often makes it worse.
AI & Automation Why Your AI Strategy Is Actually a Vendor Strategy
Most enterprise AI strategies are structured around vendor capabilities rather than organisational problems. We examined 11 AI strategy documents and found that 9 defined their approach by the technology they'd purchased rather than the outcomes they needed.
Strategy The Data Strategy Paradox: Why More Data Makes Worse Decisions
Organisations that invest most heavily in data capabilities often make decisions no better — and sometimes worse — than those that don't. We traced this paradox across six enterprises and found a structural explanation nobody was looking for.